Impact of future obesity trends in the Mexican population: Development of a computer simulation model

INTRODUCTION: Mexico is one of the top 10 countries with the highest prevalence of obesity worldwide. In 2012, 22 million Mexican adults were classified as obese. As a consequence, the country has seen an increase in morbidity and mortality from obesity-associated diseases that have impacted the country’s health and economy. OBJECTIVE: To develop a computer simulation model that estimates future obesity prevalence and its impact on four cardiometabolic risk factors in the Mexican adult population aged 20-79y from 2015 to 2030. METHODS: Using the best and most recent available Mexican data, I developed the Mexican Obesity Forecast Model (MexOb-Model), a population-based computer simulation model that is composed of two sub-models: 1) a linear trend model that projects future prevalence of obesity; and a 2) discrete-state Markov model that estimates the impacts of rising levels of obesity on morbidity and mortality from hypertension, type 2 diabetes, hypertriglyceridaemia and hypercholesterolaemia in the adult population. Additionally, I estimated the potential health benefits of three hypothetical obesity prevalence reduction scenarios. RESULTS: If current trends continue, by 2030 there would be 48million obese adults (20─79y) in Mexico. The prevalence of hypertension, hypertriglyceridaemia and hypercholesterolaemia in the obese population would reach >50%, and 30% for diabetes. Decreasing the projected 2030 obesity prevalence by 3% would reduce the number of disease cases in the obese population by 150,000-500,000 and would reduce the number of deaths by 16,000-30,000. If Mexico achieved a bigger reduction in obesity levels, a 10% reduction in 2015 obesity prevalence by 2030, the number of disease cases avoided could be between 2 million and 7 million and total deaths reduce by nearly 500,000. CONCLUSION: The country’s prevalence of obesity, and obesity-related cardiometabolic risk factors, are expected to increase. A reduction of as little as 3% in the projected prevalence of obesity could result in a significant reduction in the health burden of obesity in Mexico

Pigment-specific relationships between feather corticosterone concentrations and sexual coloration

The adrenocortical stress response may divert energy away from sexual ornamentation, such that ornaments signal exposure or resistance to physiological stress. Alternatively, steroid glucocorticoids released via the stress response may support ornament development by stimulating foraging and metabolism. The relationship between glucocorticoids and ornamentation may vary with ornament type and across age and sex classes that experience different resource allocation tradeoffs. In yellow warblers (Setophaga petechia), we conducted the first study to simultaneously assess whether relationships between corticosterone (the primary avian glucocorticoid) and ornamentation depend on sexual pigment type, age, and sex. We quantified carotenoid- and phaeomelanin-based pigmentation using spectrometry, and assayed corticosterone in feathers (CORTf) to derive an integrative metric of corticosterone levels during molt. Yellow warblers with lower carotenoid hue (lambda R50) had higher CORTf, suggesting that carotenoid hue may signal stress during molt across age and sex classes. Carotenoid chroma also negatively correlated with CORTf. However, this correlation was absent in older males, seemingly because these males display more saturated carotenoid pigmentation, and thus less variance in carotenoid chroma. Young males with higher CORTf also tended to have poorer quality tertial feathers, indicating poor condition at molt. Phaeomelanin-based pigmentation was largely unrelated to CORTf, suggesting that pleiotropic effects do not link phaeomelanogenesis and CORT release. Finally, CORTf was repeatable across years within individuals. Thus, carotenoid- and phaeomelanin-based pigmentation communicate nonequivalent information about physiological stress, with carotenoid pigmentation having the potential to signal stable differences in stress levels that could affect fitness

Utilidad y significado de la infraestructura de datos espaciales de España. Hermenéutica de la IDEE

La Infraestructura de Datos Espaciales de España (www.idee.es), en funcionamiento desde el verano del 2004, es un proyecto cooperativo, de autoría colectiva, en el que participan organismos e instituciones de los tres ámbitos de la Administración Pública (general, regional y local), del entorno universitario y del sector privado. Básicamente consiste en un sistema distribuido en la Red que permite a cualquier usuario mediante un simple navegador (browser) la búsqueda, localización, visualización, superposición en pantalla, consulta, análisis y, en ocasiones, descarga de los datos geográficos disponibles en más de quince servidores pertenecientes a diferentes organismos cartográficos de España, que ofrecen mapas a varias escalas, nomenclátores, ortofotos, imágenes de satélite, catastro, etc., todo ello, con cobertura nacional, facilidad de acceso y sencillez de uso

England SimSmoke: the impact of nicotine vaping on smoking prevalence and smoking‐attributable deaths in England

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: While the use of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is widespread, their impact on smoking prevalence is controversial. This study considered the potential impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence in England. DESIGN: Indirect simulation model. The England SimSmoke model is validated through 2012, before NVP use became more widely used by smokers. Because information on NVP-related transitions is limited, an indirect method is used; the difference in observed smoking prevalence (reflecting NVPs) is compared with a 2012-2019 counterfactual No-NVP scenario (without NVPs) to estimate the impact of NVPs on smoking and smoking-attributable deaths. SETTING: England, 2000-2019. PARTICIPANTS: Nationally representative sample of population. MEASUREMENTS: England's population, mortality rates, and smoking prevalence estimates from three national surveys and tobacco control policies. FINDINGS: Between 2000 and 2012, SimSmoke projected a decline in age 18+ smoking prevalence of 23.5% in men and 27.0% in women. These projections, as well as those by specific age groups, were generally consistent with findings from the three national surveys. Comparing 2012-2019 relative reduction in age 18+ prevalence from the Annual Population Survey (males 27.5%) with the model-predicted No-NVP reduction (males 7.3%), the implied NVP-attributable relative reduction in adult smoking prevalence was 20.2% (95% CI, 18.8%-22.0%) for males and 20.4% (18.7%-22.2%) for females. The NVP-attributable reduction was 27.2% (22.8%-31.6%) for males and 31.7% (27.4%-36.5%) for females ages 18-24 and 18.6% (15.2%-21.8%) for males and 15.0% (11.1%-18.8%) for females ages 25-34, with similar reductions for ages 35 and above. The implied reduction in smoking prevalence between 2012 and 2019 equates to 165,660 (132,453-199,501) averted deaths by 2052. Other surveys yielded smaller, but relatively consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: An indirect method of simulation modeling indicates that substantial reductions in smoking prevalence occurred in England from 2012 to 2019 coinciding with the growth in nicotine vaping product use

Mathematical modeling tendencies in plant pathology

Nowadays plant diseases represent one of the major threats for crops around the world, because they carry healthy, economical, environmental and social problems. Considering this, it is necessary to have a description of the dynamics of plant disease in order to have sustainable strategies to prevent and diminish the impact of the diseases in crops. Mathematical tools have been employed to create models which give a description of epidemic dynamics; the commonly mathematical tools used are: Diseaseprogress curves, Linked Differential Equation (LDE), Area Under disease Progress Curve (AUDPC) and computer simulation. Nevertheless, there are other tools that have been employed in epidemiology of plant disease like: statistical tools, visual evaluations and pictorial assessment. Each tool has its own advantages and disadvantages. The nature of the problem and the epidemiologist necessities determine the mathematical tool to be used and the variables to be included into the model. This paperpresents review of the tools used in epidemiology of plant disease remarking their advantages and disadvantages and mathematical modeling tendencies in plant pathology

Cerebrovascular disease and statins

Elevated low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) is a causal factor for the development of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD); accordingly, LDL-C lowering is associated with a decreased risk of progression of atherosclerotic plaques and development of complications. Currently, statins play a central role in any ASCVD management and prevention strategies, in relation to their lipid-lowering action and potentially to pleiotropic effects. After coronary artery disease, stroke is the most frequent cause of ASCVD mortality and the leading cause of acquired disability, a major public health problem. There is often a tendency to aggregate all types of stroke (atherothrombotic, cardioembolic, and haemorrhagic), which have, however, different causes and pathophysiology, what may lead to bias when interpreting the results of the studies. Survivors of a first atherothrombotic ischemic stroke are at high risk for coronary events, recurrent stroke, and vascular death. Although epidemiological studies show a weak relationship between cholesterol levels and cerebrovascular disease as a whole compared with other ASCVD types, statin intervention studies have demonstrated a decrease in the risk of stroke in patients with atherosclerosis of other territories and a decrease in all cardiovascular events in patients who have had a stroke. The Stroke Prevention by Aggressive Reduction in Cholesterol Levels (SPARCL) trial demonstrated the benefit of high doses of atorvastatin in the secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. In this review, we discuss the evidence, use and recommendations of statins in the primary and secondary prevention of stroke, and their role in other scenarios such as the acute phase of ischemic stroke, cerebral hemorrhage, cardioembolic stroke, small vessel disease, and cognitive impairment

Biocompatible, Multiresponsive Nanogel Composites for Codelivery of Antiangiogenic and Chemotherapeutic Agents

Single therapy approaches are usually insufficient to treat certain diseases, due to genetic differences between patients or disease resistance. Therefore, such approaches are gradually replaced by combination therapies comprising two or more drugs. In oncology, these include BRAF inhibitors and cytotoxic, antiangiogenic, or immunomodulatory agents, among others. We propose herein the use of multiresponsive nanogel composites for the codelivery of a DNA intercalator (doxorubicin) and an antiangiogenic and immunomodulatory agent (pomalidomide). We introduce a surfactant-free synthetic protocol to decorate biocompatible poly(ethylene glycol)methacrylate nanogels (PEGMA) with evenly distributed gold nanoparticles and explore their ability to deliver drugs upon stimulation by various triggers such as heat, light, and reducing agents present in the intracellular environment. We further demonstrate that an additional polymer coating on the nanogel surface can decrease uncontrolled drug leakage and modulate cellular uptake and the drug release profile

The effect of seasoning with herbs on the nutritional, safety and sensory properties of reduced-sodium fermented Cobrançosa cv. table olives

This study aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of seasoning Cobrancosa table olives in a brine with aromatic ingredients, in order to mask the bitter taste given by KCl when added to reduced-sodium fermentation brines. Olives were fermented in two different salt combinations: Brine A, containing 8% NaCl and, Brine B, a reduced-sodium brine, containing 4% NaCl + 4% KCl. After the fermentation the olives were immersed in seasoning brines with NaCl (2%) and the aromatic herbs (thyme, oregano and calamintha), garlic and lemon. At the end of the fermentation and two weeks after seasoning, the physicochemical, nutritional, organoleptic, and microbiological parameters, were determined. The olives fermented in the reduced-sodium brines had half the sodium concentration, higher potassium and calcium content, a lower caloric level, but were considered, by a sensorial panel, more bitter than olives fermented in NaCl brine. Seasoned table olives, previously fermented in Brine A and Brine B, had no significant differences in the amounts of protein (1.23% or 1.11%), carbohydrates (1.0% or 0.66%), fat (20.0% or 20.5%) and dietary fiber (3.4% or 3.6%). Regarding mineral contents, the sodium-reduced fermented olives, presented one third of sodium, seven times more potassium and three times more calcium than the traditional olives fermented in 8% NaCl. Additionally, according to the panelists' evaluation, seasoning the olives fermented in 4% NaCl + 4% KCl, resulted in a decrease in bitterness and an improvement in the overall evaluation and flavor. Escherichia coli and Salmonella were not found in the olives produced.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio